1 Game Profile

1.1 Estimated Outcomes on BGG

This table displays the selected game’s current values on four BGG outcomes (UsersRated, Average, GeekRating, Weight) along with my predictive model(s) estimated values for where these games are likely to end up.

Published	ID	Name	Type	UserRatings	Average	GeekRating	Weight
2021	320084	The Dogs of War	Current	50	9.01	5.57	4.14
			Estimated	100	8.04	5.63	3.56

To see more information about the game on boardgamegeek, click on the game’s ID or Name to go straight to the game’s profile page.

1.2 Game Description

Description
"The goal is to collapse adversary’s system into confusion and disorder causing him to over and under react to activity that appears simultaneously menacing as well as ambiguous, chaotic, or misleading." John R. Boyd, “Patterns of Conflict” At 0400 Zulu Time, July 24 1985, Warsaw Pact forces cross the Inner German Border and assault NATO positions in West Germany. The main thrust, formed by 10 Soviet Category I Divisions, is in the BAOR sector and points directly to the Ruhr area. Taking its roots from SPI’s Central Front and NATO: Division Commander, The Dogs of War is the second module of the C3 series, focused on Command, Control and Communication. All the elements of modern mechanized warfare are covered: Chemical and Nuclear Weapons, Attack Helicopters, Engineers, Electronic Warfare, Counter-battery Fire, Ribbon Bridges, Army Doctrines, Reconnaissance units, Close Air Support coordination and more. Several typical wargame mechanics have been reinterpreted, and both sides will fight three equally dangerous foes: the enemy, their own plan and time. Even a simple action can quickly turn into a disaster when facing an opponent using more efficiently the real key to victory: the OODA Loop theorized by John Boyd in the early ‘80s and used today as the basis for several military doctrines. Military doctrine, tactics and peculiarities for each side are represented, allowing a skilled commander to use his own strength points and exploit the enemy’s weak ones. Some examples are: West German Auftragstaktik (Mission-Type Orders), giving Bundeswehr a flexibility hardly obtained by other armies. British Engineers, allowing extensive use of prepared defense positions. BAOR logistic deficiencies and ammunition shortage. Soviet Sappers, first-line assault units used to crack the toughest nuts. Soviet Assault From March doctrine. Warsaw Pact vulnerable supply network. Game Highlights 5 km per hex, 3 hours per game turn Regiment / Battalion sized ground units Detailed Order of Battle set in 1985 Close Air Support and Attack Helicopters Command, Control & Communication related problems Electronic and Intelligence Warfare Artillery interdiction and Counter-Battery fire Chemical and Nuclear warfare Specific events for Warsaw Pact and NATO Random events to further increase battlefield chaos Two Campaign Games: "The River Weser Deep and Wide", Warsaw Pact offensive in BAOR sector. "One Minute to Midnight", all-out chemical and nuclear warfare after several weeks of tension and build-up Four Smaller Scenarios: "Welcome to Braunschweig", West German 2 Panzer Brigade defense of the city against Soviet 35th Motorized Rifle Division. "They Came Before Dawn", Soviet 76th Guards Airborne assault to key crossings on Weser and Leine rivers. "Give Me the Night", British 1st Armoured Division fight to slow down Soviet 3rd Shock Army assault. "Queen's Gambit", British 3rd Armoured Division counter-attack at D+4. Game Components 98×55 cm matte plasticized map, covering BAOR area of responsibility 1000+ 5/8″ matte plasticized counters 44 Action and Event Cards 30 pages Rules Booklet 30 pages Scenarios & Designer’s Notes Booklet 10 pages Examples of Play Booklet 2x Tables booklets 4x Players' Aid Charts 2x 10-sided dice 10x zipbags

1.3 Game Information

Information on the game’s designers, artists, families, mechanics and categories from BGG.

For the full profile of the selected game, click on the links in the table or go to https://boardgamegeek.com/boardgame/320084

1.4 Explaining Predictions

For each of the predictions above, I used models that were trained on historical boardgamegeek data in order to predict the selected game. How did the model(s) arrive at their predictions? The following plot displays Shapley values to indicate what features were most influential for the model’s predictions. Anything in blue increased the model’s predictions, anything in red decreased the model’s predictions.

2 Finding Similar Games

What games are similar to The Dogs of War? I compare the selected game to every other game on boardgamegeek based on its mechanics, playing time, complexity, and game type. The tables below display the games which had the most similar data to The Dogs of War. The reported similarity is the cosine similarity between the selected game and all other games published before 2021.

This similarity score ranges from -1 to 1, where similarity of 1 indicates that games are exactly identical (a game will have a score of 1 with itself).

Note: This analysis does not look at a game’s ratings on BGG, publisher, artist, or designer - it focuses on finding similar games based on how they play, not how they are rated or by their theme.

2.1 Most Similar Games

The table below displays games with the most similar data to The Dogs of War. Click on a game’s ID or Name to go straight to its profile on boardgamegeek.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	320084	The Dogs of War	1.00	5.57	9.01	3.56	50
1	2020	267402	War and Peace: Game of the Napoleonic Wars	0.99	5.61	7.95	3.67	110
2	1979	7063	Double Star	0.99	5.51	6.06	3.67	48
3	2020	288539	The Jaws of Victory: Battle of Korsun-Cherkassy Pocket – January/February 1944	0.98	5.64	8.69	4.15	93
4	1977	4008	Cobra: Game of the Normandy Breakout	0.98	5.69	6.77	2.80	339
5	1979	5651	The Longest Day	0.98	5.80	7.23	4.14	452
6	1983	2081	The Civil War 1861-1865	0.97	6.34	7.73	3.80	1,212
7	2019	254239	Quatre Bras 1815: Last Eagles	0.97	5.67	8.19	3.43	137
8	1976	1430	Caesar: Epic Battle of Alesia	0.96	5.90	7.13	2.99	632
9	1983	4278	Battle Over Britain	0.96	5.59	6.60	3.94	186
10	1978	6240	The Crusades: Western Invasions of the Holy Land 1097-1191 A.D.	0.96	5.56	6.29	2.90	170
11	1978	5996	The Battle for Cassino: Assaulting the Gustav Line, 1944	0.96	5.48	5.32	3.18	153
12	2016	62291	Fatal Alliances: The Great War 1914-1918	0.95	5.60	8.10	4.14	98
13	1980	1720	Dragon Pass	0.95	5.76	6.96	3.44	455
14	1970	8044	Renaissance of Infantry: Tactical Warfare, 1250 A.D-1550 A.D	0.95	5.51	6.25	3.25	30
15	1982	3993	Necromancer	0.95	5.53	6.07	2.55	89
16	1977	2228	War of the Ring	0.95	5.87	6.66	3.47	968
17	1977	3218	The Arab-Israeli Wars: Tank Battles in the Mideast	0.95	5.72	6.39	3.22	688
18	1978	5205	G.E.V.	0.95	5.96	7.00	2.30	862
19	1989	17649	First Blood: The 1st and 2nd Battles of Manassas	0.95	5.53	6.98	3.88	47
20	2017	198087	Arquebus: Men of Iron Volume IV – The Battles for Northern Italy 1495-1544	0.95	5.69	7.63	3.00	195
21	1979	8328	Paratroop	0.95	5.55	6.15	2.29	209
22	1983	13837	Kirovograd	0.95	5.54	6.89	3.00	49
23	1979	4295	Murfreesboro: A Game of the Battle of Stones River December 31, 1862	0.95	5.51	6.44	3.33	36
24	1981	6130	Wohrom: Swords and Magic Against Evil Forces	0.95	5.51	6.52	3.40	33
25	1979	8324	The China War: Sino-Soviet Conflict in the 1980s	0.95	5.50	5.60	2.56	179

Click on the ID or Name for any game to go its profile page on boardgamegeek.

2.2 Most Similar, Highly Rated Games

What games are similar to The Dogs of War while also being highly rated by the boardgamegeek community? In this table I multiply every neighboring game’s similarity score by its GeekRating. The resulting score is an attempt to balance these two quantities.

Rank	Published	ID	Name	Score	Similarity	GeekRating	Average	Weight	UserRatings
--	2021	320084	The Dogs of War	5.57	1.00	5.57	9.01	3.56	50
1	1985	243	Advanced Squad Leader	6.45	0.91	7.06	8.00	4.74	3,640
2	1977	1035	Squad Leader	6.29	0.93	6.73	7.53	4.04	3,272
3	1983	2081	The Civil War 1861-1865	6.18	0.97	6.34	7.73	3.80	1,212
4	2014	61487	Unconditional Surrender! World War 2 in Europe	5.78	0.91	6.34	8.16	3.73	927
5	1976	1430	Caesar: Epic Battle of Alesia	5.69	0.96	5.90	7.13	2.99	632
6	1978	5205	G.E.V.	5.67	0.95	5.96	7.00	2.30	862
7	1979	5651	The Longest Day	5.67	0.98	5.80	7.23	4.14	452
8	1976	3041	Panzergruppe Guderian	5.62	0.94	6.00	7.35	2.81	711
9	1977	2228	War of the Ring	5.59	0.95	5.87	6.66	3.47	968
10	1977	4008	Cobra: Game of the Normandy Breakout	5.57	0.98	5.69	6.77	2.80	339
11	2020	288539	The Jaws of Victory: Battle of Korsun-Cherkassy Pocket – January/February 1944	5.56	0.98	5.64	8.69	4.15	93
12	2020	267402	War and Peace: Game of the Napoleonic Wars	5.56	0.99	5.61	7.95	3.67	110
13	1980	1720	Dragon Pass	5.49	0.95	5.76	6.96	3.44	455
14	2019	254239	Quatre Bras 1815: Last Eagles	5.48	0.97	5.67	8.19	3.43	137
15	1979	7063	Double Star	5.46	0.99	5.51	6.06	3.67	48
16	1977	3218	The Arab-Israeli Wars: Tank Battles in the Mideast	5.45	0.95	5.72	6.39	3.22	688
17	2017	198087	Arquebus: Men of Iron Volume IV – The Battles for Northern Italy 1495-1544	5.41	0.95	5.69	7.63	3.00	195
18	1983	2079	NATO: The Next War in Europe	5.40	0.94	5.77	6.71	3.21	581
19	1979	23	Divine Right	5.39	0.92	5.84	7.14	3.19	573
20	1983	4278	Battle Over Britain	5.39	0.96	5.59	6.60	3.94	186
21	1978	6240	The Crusades: Western Invasions of the Holy Land 1097-1191 A.D.	5.36	0.96	5.56	6.29	2.90	170
22	1976	1506	Conquistador: The Age of Exploration	5.35	0.93	5.75	6.52	3.29	621
23	2016	62291	Fatal Alliances: The Great War 1914-1918	5.34	0.95	5.60	8.10	4.14	98
24	1978	4207	Kharkov: The Soviet Spring Offensive, 1942	5.29	0.94	5.62	6.65	2.59	229
25	1979	8328	Paratroop	5.27	0.95	5.55	6.15	2.29	209

2.3 Why Are Games Considered Similar?

I first ran a dimension reduction method (PCA) to identify the main points of variation for games on BGG. The first 25 components explained roughly 50% of the overall variation in the dataset, so I computed the cosine similarity between every game’s score on these 25 components.

2.3.1 Plotting All Games

The following plot shows every game on BGG plotted on the first two principal components of variation. I then highlight where the selected game and its nearest neighbors fall on these first two components.

2.3.2 Game Profiles

Similarity scores are based on 25 principal components - the next table displays the selected game and its neighbors profiles on each of these components.

## Warning in abbreviate(neighbor_name, 60): abbreviate used with non-ASCII chars

2.3.3 Examining Components

What are these components? The following plot shows which features contribute the most to each component.

Published	ID	Name	Publisher(s)	Designer(s)	Artist(s)	Categories	Families	Mechanics
2021	320084	The Dogs of War	Thin Red Line Games	Fabrizio Vianello	Fabrizio Vianello	Modern Warfare	Country: Germany	Dice Rolling
						Wargame	Country: Soviet Union	Events
							Country: United Kingdom	Grid Movement
							History: Cold War	Hexagon Grid
							Theme: Alternate History	Movement Points
							Theme: Nuclear option	Scenario / Mission / Campaign Game
								Simulation
								Variable Set-up
								Zone of Control

Individual Game Analysis